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COST PLANNING February 2026 TABREED REPORTS FY 2025 REVENUE OF AED 2.46 BN ON AIRE DEBUTS: CPI INDUSTRY LAUNCHES HVACR BROADCAST PLATFORM US$ PUBLICATION LICENSED BY IMPZ US$ PUBLICATION LICENSED BY IMPZ US$ PUBLICATION LICENSED BY IMPZ US$ PUBLICATION LICENSED BY IMPZ REFRIGERANTS REVIEW Hastening the transition Policy, practice and the push for safer refrigerants REGIONAL REPORT Kuwait Conference: From guessing to gauging Why filtration physics is becoming central to decarbonisation REPORT Copernicus Climate Change Service: Fifth-warmest January on record NEWS Epta acquires Hauser GFH acquires majority stake in Byrne US climate body responds to EPA’s move on GHGs IEQ & FERTILITY IVF labs as early-warning systems The chemical cocktail threatening male fertility PERSPECTIVE Geothermal heat pumps AHRI MENA Why data-rich methodologies, precision and risk engineering now define project viability ccme.news/digital IN DISTRICT COOLINGPRESENTS 30 MARCH 2026 | MUMBAI INDIA EDITION ST www.climatecontrolawards.com/indiawww.ccme.news 3 VOL. 21 NO. 2 FEBRUARY 2026 PERSPECTIVE A role for geothermal energy Nabil Shahin, MD, AHRI MENA, looks at the rising momentum behind geothermal heat pumps, shaped by incentives and the expanding viability of loop- system designs across diverse climates REGULARS Regional News Global News eDItor'S note New platform, same time-honoured principles COVER STORY Cost-planning in District Cooling District Cooling cost-estimation has matured into a discipline shaped by data- rich methodologies, advanced BIM and tighter procurement frameworks 08 06 04 34 42 POST-EVENT REPORT Kuwait Society of Engineers Conference REPORT A month of extremes Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reports January 2026 as the fifth warmest on record 30 32 26 28 EDITORIAL CAMPAIGN: REFRIGERANTS REVIEW POST EVENT REPORT 5th Edition of Refrigerants Review conference Participants urge urgent alignment of regulation, training and system-wide readiness to support transition from high-GWP refrigerants to climate-friendly ones FEATURE Policy-driven progress How national sustainability frameworks are shaping HVAC innovation, from high-efficiency systems and carbon-credit mechanisms to PPPs and lifecycle- optimised cooling PERSPECTIVE Turning necessity into opportunity With the EU’s tightened F-Gas regulation reshaping markets, natural refrigerants emerge as pathways for investment certainty, efficiency, operational resilience, says Technotrans EDITORIAL CAMPAIGN: IEQ & FERTILITY PERSPECTIVE IEQ and Assisted Reproduction James Webb, molecular geneticist, elaborates on how emerging scientific signals position IVF labs as environments for understanding how micro-level pollutants influence early human development IEQ and plummeting sperm counts Sotirios Papathanasiou, air quality specialist, conducts a review of mounting evidence linking endocrine disruptors, microplastics, heavy metals and chronic indoor pollutants to male fertility decline 14 18 204 FEBRUARY 2026 Krishnan Unni Madathil Auditor, Bin Khadim, Radha & Co. Chartered Accountants, carrying out an analysis of the market, writes on business opportunities for the HVACR industry. Dan Mizesko President, Dalkia US Chiller Services, writes on issues relating to chilled water systems, including operation & maintenance. Nabil Shahin Managing Director, AHRI MENA, writes on HVACR- specific regulation issues. Dr Iyad Al-Attar Independent air filtration consultant, writes on specific science and technology issues relating to Indoor Air Quality, including airborne particles. Angela Fandino Director, Energy Sustainability at Engineering Sustainable Futures, writes on engineering approaches, and business and financial models that enable a green urban ecosystem. Editor Surendar Balakrishnan surendar@cpi-industry.com Associate Editor Karu Suren karu.suren@cpi-industry.com Online & Social Media Abdul Hakeem marketing@cpi-industry.com Editorial Assistant Arushi Menon features@cpi-industry.com Advertising Enquiries Frédéric Paillé +971 50 7147204 fred@cpi-industry.com Judy Wang Our representative in Asia (except India) +852 307 80 826 judywang2000@vip.126.com Deep Karani Our representative in North America +1 365 885-6849 deep.karani@cpimediagroup.com Design Head Glenn Roxas design@cpi-industry.com Webmaster Chris Lopez chris@cpi-industry.com Database/Subscriptions Manager Purwanti Srirejeki purwanti@cpi-industry.com Published by Founder, CPI Media Group Dominic De Sousa (1959-2015) Co-Founder & Commercial Director Frédéric Paillé fred@cpi-industry.com EMPANELLED COLUMNISTSCo-Founder & Editorial Director Surendar Balakrishnan surendar@cpi-industry.com Head Office PO Box 13700, Dubai, UAE Web: www.cpi-industry.com Printed by: Jaguar Printing Press L.L.C © Copyright 2026 CPI Industry. All rights reserved. While the publishers have made every effort to ensure the accuracy of all information in this magazine, they will not be held responsible for any errors therein. Visit our website: climatecontrolme.com/digital Also available at COST PLANNING February 2026 TABREED REPORTS FY 2025 REVENUE OF AED 2.46 BN ON AIRE DEBUTS: CPI INDUSTRY LAUNCHES HVACR BROADCAST PLATFORM PUBLICATION LICENSED BY IMPZ PUBLICATION LICENSED BY IMPZ PUBLICATION LICENSED BY IMPZ US$ PUBLICATION LICENSED BY IMPZ REFRIGERANTS REVIEW Hastening the transition Policy, practice and the push for safer refrigerants REGIONAL REPORT Kuwait Conference: From guessing to gauging Why filtration physics is becoming central to decarbonisation REPORT Copernicus Climate Change Service: Fifth-warmest January on record NEWS Epta acquires Hauser GFH acquires majority stake in Byrne US climate body responds to EPA’s move on GHGs IEQ & FERTILITY IVF labs as early-warning systems The chemical cocktail threatening male fertility PERSPECTIVE Geothermal heat pumps AHRI MENA Why data-rich methodologies, precision and risk engineering now define project viability ccme.news/digital IN DISTRICT COOLING Get the next issue of Climate Control Middle Eastearly! Surendar Balakrishnan Editor @BSurendar_HVACR A fter 20 years of print journalism, we at CPI Industry took our first decisive steps into broadcast journalism with the launch of ON AIRE, our You Tube- based television channel that will operate under the tagline, HVACR News and Commentary. In addition, the channel will soon be available at www.ccme.news, plus offer download features across multiple platforms to enable you to listen to the audio, if you so wish, during your morning and evening commutes. ON AIRE presents news, views and commentary on the global HVACR and allied sectors. It comes to you with the solemn promise of adherence to age-old journalistic principles of merit-based, unbiased and balanced reporting of HVACR-related news and views that are relevant and supportive of global socio-economic and sustainable development goals. Those very principles underpin our work as print journalists. In the weeks and months that follow, ON AIRE will settle down to the ‘textural’ familiarity, characteristic of Climate Control Middle East . The objective is to help you navigate through complex pieces of information in a manner that would aid internalising the essence of the content. ON AIRE is not a monologue; as with the magazine, it will be our endeavour to invite you to speak your mind out, as we collectively and collaboratively seek to undo knotty challenges that stand in the way of realising the full potential of technologies, financial models and broad strategies for better energy efficiency, as a means to lowering the emission of greenhouse gases and the Total Cost of Ownership; better Indoor Environmental Quality; stronger cold chain for better food safety and vaccine integrity outcomes, to name two; and overall, better building services engineering, leading to outcomes that positively impact multiple other sectors. We are onto something here with arguably the first-of-its-kind HVACR-dedicated broadcast channel. We urge you to join the ride as we try to drive content to a much larger audience across the region and across the globe. We are Climate Control Middle East. We are also ON AIRE now. New platform, same time-honoured principleswww.refrigbuyersguide.com FOR ADVERTISING OPPORTUNITIES EMAIL: advertising@cpi-industry.com THE LARGEST DATABASE OF REFRIGERATION PRODUCTS & SUPPLIERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST Refrigeration BUYERS’ GUIDE 2026 Your reference hub to the refrigeration industry in the Middle East LOOKING FOR REFRIGERATION PRODUCTS? NOW WITH 20% DISCOUNT ON ALL ONLINE ADVERTISING PACKAGES!6 FEBRUARY 2026 DIGGING DEEPER INTO MOTHER EARTH’S NATURAL ENERGY Nabil Shahin of AHRI MENA says the rise of geothermal heat pumps is being driven by sustainability mandates and incentives PERSPECTIVE G EOTHERMAL HEAT pumps (GHPs) have come a long way since they were first introduced in the US market somewhere around the late 1970s. What used to be viewed as somewhat of an alien concept by many homeowners has grown more mainstream, and is expected to globally reach USD 12 billion by 2033, driven by sustainability mandates, incentives and consumer demand for energy efficiency. In the US, ground-source geothermal heat pumps (GSHPs) remain a small but growing share of new construction, estimated at 2-5% of new homes in 2024. That figure was about 0.5 per cent 20 years ago. Many factors have contributed to the growth, including more consumer awareness of the benefits of geothermal, increased demand for energy efficiency and the need for reducing the carbon footprint among consumers, technological improvements, more experience on the part of dealers and installers, high-quality training opportunities and government incentives for homeowners. Types of geothermal heat pumps GHP efficiencies have gone up dramatically. Some of the technology improvements include variable-speed fan motors, variable-speed or two- stage compressors and advanced controls. These all have led to increased comfort, better dehumidification and quiet operation. There are four basic types of ground loop systems. Three of these – horizontal, vertical and pond/lake – are closed-loop systems. The fourth is the open-loop option. Which one of these is best depends on the climate, soil conditions, available land and local installation costs at the site. All of the approaches can be used for residential and commercial building applications. Horizontal system This type of installation is generally most cost-effective for residential installations, particularly for new construction where sufficient land is available. It requires trenches at least four feet deep. The most common layouts either use two pipes, one buried at six feet, and the other at four feet, or two pipes placed side-by-side at two metres in the ground in a one-metre-wide trench. The proprietary Slinky method of looping pipe allows more pipe in a shorter trench, which cuts down on installation costs and makes horizontal installation possible in areas it would not be with conventional horizontal applications.www.ccme.news 7 Vertical system Large commercial buildings and schools often use vertical systems, because the land area required for horizontal loops would be prohibitive. Vertical loops are also used where the soil is too shallow for trenching, and they minimise the disturbance to existing landscaping. For a vertical system, holes – approximately 10 cm in diameter – are drilled about six metres apart and 30-120 metres deep. Into these holes go two pipes that are connected at the bottom with a U-bend to form a loop. The vertical loops are connected with a horizontal pipe (manifold), placed in trenches, and connected to the heat pump in the building. Lake/water body If the site has an adequate water body, this may be the lowest cost option. A supply line pipe is run underground from the building to the water and coiled into circles at least 2.5 metres under the surface to prevent freezing in cold regions and excessive heat in hot regions. The coils should only be placed in a water source that meets minimum volume, depth and quality criteria. Open-loop system This type of system uses well or surface body water as the heat exchange fluid that circulates directly through the GHP system. Once it has circulated through the system, the water returns to the ground through the well, a recharge well or surface discharge. This option is obviously practical only where there is an adequate supply of relatively clean water, and all local codes and regulations regarding groundwater discharge are met. Benefits of GHPs The biggest benefit of GHPs is that they use 25%–50% less electricity than conventional heating or cooling systems. This translates into a GHP using one unit of electricity to move three units of heat from the earth. According to the US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), geothermal heat pumps can reduce energy consumption and corresponding emissions by up to 44% compared to air-source heat pumps and up to 72% compared to electric resistance heating with standard air conditioning equipment. GHPs also improve humidity control by maintaining about 50% relative indoor humidity, making GHPs very effective in humid areas. Today’s geothermal systems, using the Earth’s natural energy, can heat and cool a home, and provide domestic water heating, as well. They also can be used in combination with radiant floor heating systems, including systems integrated with solar panels, and can also provide heating for snow-/ice- melting and pools. The US EPA touts GHPs as one of the “most efficient and comfortable heating and cooling technologies currently available” and estimates that ENERGY STAR-qualified GHPs use about 30% less energy than standard heat pumps. How much a homeowner can save in energy costs by installing a geothermal system will depend on the type of equipment to which it is being compared. Other considerations Upfront cost: Geothermal systems in residential applications have higher installation costs, but the payback period is typically 3-7 years, due to energy savings and incentives. Longevity : Geothermal systems last longer – 20-25 years for the unit, 50+ years for the ground loop – than conventional systems, which typically last 10-15 years. High-ambient temperature (HAT) regions : Since GHPs are primarily used for cooling in HAT regions, they are constantly dumping heat underground. Therefore, it may be necessary to use larger trenches or a greater number of boreholes, as heat dissipation could become an issue, unlike in climates where both heating and cooling are required, and the system extracts heat from underground during heating, resulting in a more balanced thermal exchange throughout the year. Key AHRI standards for geothermal The main AHRI standard for geothermal heat pumps is AHRI 870 for "Performance Rating of Direct Geoexchange Heat Pumps", and the related AHRI 871 (for SI units). These standards define the technical requirements and rating conditions for performance testing and certification of direct geoexchange (DGX) systems, which are used in programmes like ENERGY STAR. There are also standards for other types, such as AHRI 600 for Water-Source Heat Pumps and AHRI 1300 for Commercial Heat Pump Water Heaters that use geo-exchange. CPI Industry accepts no liability for the views or opinions expressed in this article, or for the consequences of any actions taken on the basis of the information provided here. The writer is Managing Director of AHRI MENA. He may be reached at NShahin@ahrinet.org.E STIMATING THE cost of building District Cooling schemes has evolved from a narrow, largely number-driven exercise into a strategic function that shapes the technical, financial and operational viability of entire developments. Once anchored in generic benchmarks and limited regional data, it is now underpinned by richer datasets, more sophisticated procurement strategies and shifting market dynamics that influence how capital expenditure is forecast, validated and controlled. At the same time, structural challenges around contractor capacity, fair remuneration and talent retention are reshaping how projects are priced and delivered on the ground. This article draws insights from two senior industry figures: A.R. Suresh Kumar, Vice President and Head, IOBG, Voltas; and Fadi Hashem, General Manager, Design Director, DC PRO Engineering. Their perspectives highlight how methodologies, risk allocation and human capital are redefining the way District Cooling costs are assessed and managed. Early lessons: Oversizing and the data revolution Fadi Hashem recalls how the GCC region's first District Cooling COST-PLANNING IN DISTRICT COOLING: NAVIGATING COMPLEXITY AND RISK As District Cooling schemes grow in scale and complexity, industry leaders argue that cost estimation is shifting from simple forecasting to a sophisticated exercise in engineering judgement, risk management and talent development COVER STORY schemes struggled with immature methodologies that depended heavily on limited local experience and foreign benchmarks. Without reliable regional data, early cost assessments rested on broad parametric assumptions, often leading to inflated figures and misguided investment decisions. A critical lesson emerged from oversizing: Inaccurate load forecasts translated directly into excess capital expenditure across plants and distribution networks. The industry adapted decisively. Developers now prioritise rigorous load validation, realistic diversity factors and phased capacity expansion that matches genuine demand growth, a sharp departure from wasteful "build-for- ultimate-load" approaches. Over the past decade, this shift has unlocked significant capital efficiency and smoother cash flows. Complementing these changes, the sector has amassed rich cost libraries, historical contract awards, and operational performance data, enabling precise early- stage benchmarking that far surpasses the guesswork of the past. Hashem also credits regional expansion efforts, particularly in the UAE, for drawing in more specialised contractors. Greater competition, paired with refined procurement tactics, has driven down construction costs while upholding quality standards. Design optimisation: Small fees, massive impact Hashem positions design as the pivotal cost lever in District Cooling projects. “Experience shows that suboptimal or oversized plant design can lead to 20- 30% variance in awarded project costs,” he says. “While design fees typically represent less than two per cent of 8 FEBRUARY 2026 By Arushi Menon | Editorial Assistant, Climate Control Middle East A.R. Suresh Kumarwww.ccme.news 9 total project cost, the downstream financial impact of design decisions is substantial.” These early decisions ripple through construction, commissioning and decades of operations, locking in avoidable expenses. Hashem advises developers to engage proven District Cooling designers and enforce stringent technical reviews from the outset. “Investing in high-quality engineering early has been repeatedly shown to yield exponential savings during construction and operation,” he says. To sharpen accountability further, integrated procurement models now require designers to quote a Guaranteed Maximum Price (GMP) for plant and network construction alongside their fees. Payments, bonds and incentives tie directly to hitting cost targets, aligning design creativity with financial discipline. Hashem confirms this approach curbed overdesign and proved effective in a recent Dubai development. Complexity and the new risk landscape Modern District Cooling schemes bear little resemblance to their predecessors. Interconnected plants sharing distribution networks, thermal energy storage integration and dense urban land constraints demand far more than traditional per-ton cost metrics. Estimators now rely on granular component breakdowns, hydraulic analysis and scenario testing to capture design interfaces and balancing challenges. External pressures compound the increase in complexity of schemes. Scarce high-value land forces compact, non-standard plant layouts; desalinated water restrictions spur hybrid cooling or treatment systems; and solar- ready infrastructure adds upfront costs alongside regulatory risks. Hashem stresses that no universal model fits every site. Successful estimation demands Next >